By Prince Daniel

Dear Mr President, I Respectfully Differ on Where You Met The Dollar

I am not an economist, but as a petty trader I am certainly a lover of figures. Numbers tell stories, they provide context, and they guide decisions. That is why, with utmost respect, I must differ with your recent statement, Mr President, that you met the naira at ₦1,900 to a dollar upon assuming office in May 2023.

When you declared on September 2, 2025, that you met the naira at ₦1,900 to a dollar upon assuming office in May 2023, many Nigerians raised their eyebrows. While the intent may have been to highlight the magnitude of the economic challenges, the record tells a different story.

What the Numbers Said in May 2023

At the point of transition in May 2023, the official Investors and Exporters (I&E) window rate was about ₦460–₦470 per dollar. In the parallel market, the highest range was around ₦750 per dollar. There was no point in May 2023 when the naira traded at ₦1,900 to the dollar.

When ₦1,900 Actually Happened

The naira only fell to ₦1,800–₦1,900 per dollar several months later, in early 2024, following the removal of fuel subsidies, the unification of exchange rates, and other policy adjustments. This was not inherited; it was the by-product of reform choices made under your administration, sir.

Factors Affecting the Exchange Rate

Several underlying issues have contributed to the volatility of the naira:

▪︎ Dependence on imports: Nigeria still imports a large percentage of food, fuel, and manufactured goods, creating constant demand for dollars.

▪︎ Declining oil revenues: Oil theft, under-investment in production, and fluctuating global prices weaken our foreign exchange inflow.

▪︎ Speculation and round-tripping: Multiple currency practices and the dominance of the parallel market have encouraged speculative attacks on the naira.

▪︎ Capital flight: Inconsistent policies and insecurity discourage foreign investors, limiting dollar inflows.

▪︎ Smuggling and porous borders: Past policies such as border closure disrupted trade flows but did not sustainably strengthen local productivity.

The Uphill Task You Inherited

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To be fair, running an economy from where the late President Muhammadu Buhari left it was always going to be an uphill task. The effects of border closures, debt accumulation, and limited investment in critical infrastructure created a fragile base. I do not envy your seat, Mr President. But you sought the job, and you declared readiness to take on these challenges.

Recommendations for Stabilising the Naira

If the goal is genuine stability, then certain steps must be prioritised:

1. Boost Local Production: Encourage domestic manufacturing and agriculture to reduce reliance on imports that drain foreign reserves.
2. Increase Dollar Inflows: Invest in oil production, diversify export commodities, and strengthen sectors like tech and creative industries that can attract foreign exchange.
3. Transparent Monetary Policy: Provide clarity and consistency in Central Bank policies to restore investor confidence.
4. Curb Speculation: Strengthen regulation around forex trading and address round-tripping by powerful interests.
5. Tackle Insecurity: Stability in food belts and oil-producing regions is critical to both domestic production and export growth.
6. Diaspora Engagement: Create incentives for remittances to enter through official channels, which can provide a steady dollar buffer.

A Respectful Correction

Mr President, the record is clear: Nigeria did not begin at ₦1,900 per dollar in May 2023. That fall came later, under the strain of reforms. Admitting this truth does not diminish the effort you have made. It only provides clarity for Nigerians who wish to measure progress honestly.

Rest assured, I wish you well, Mr President. For in your success lies the stability of our economy and the hope of millions. The task is daunting, but not insurmountable with the right mix of truth, policy discipline, and trust-building with the people.

With these few points of mine, I rest my case.

Ordinary Citizen,

Prince Daniel

4th September, 2025