Open letter to Gov Abba Yusuf over provision of alternative power supply, considering carbon neutrality

By solacebase.com On Nov 11, 2024

Abba Kabir Yusuf, reversion, Yusuf Maitama Sule University,Northwest University Kano — Gov Abba Kabir Yusuf

Dear Governor Yusuf

As an economist, who specialises in Energy Economics, Carbon Finance and Macroeconomics Policy, I am being compelled to write this piece to draw Your attention to the potential increase in unemployment, decrease in income and perpetual reliance on micro and small enterprises or even gradual collapse of industrialisation in Kano state.

You Excellency, I have listened to your recent media chat on Wednesday, November 6, 2024.

I was so happy that the government recognised the need for establishing the state’s electricity generation plants but, I am particularly concerned that the government is focusing heavily on solar as a main alternative power source. Given the prevailing economic turbulence, the proposed decentralization of the national grid system, and the resurgence of regionalism and above all the National Tax Reform Bill 2024 that is meant to share Value Added Tax (VAT)proceeds mainly on derivation principles, the northern states in general and Kano in particular, is required to take strategic and smartest step possible.

While recognizing the pressing need for mitigating the impacts of climate change, an emerging economy like Nigeria, needs to study and capture the nexus between energy consumption – industrialization – and – economic growth in its development plans. On this note, empirical studies have revealed a trade-off between climate policies and economic growth.

For example, Ayres et al. (2013) concludes that implementing strict climate policies could significantly pressure economic growth, lead to higher energy costs and potentially hinder growth rates if not managed effectively. Further, Dai et al. (2016) assert that China’s drive for clean energy expansion has negative consequences for the whole economy by dwarfing employment in the fossil fuel industry, decline in demand for high-carbon industrial products and long-term shrinkage in prices of fossil fuel products.

The dependence of industrialization and economic growth on energy consumption was recognised by the United Nations Kyoto Protocol of 1997. The Protocol sets binding emission reduction targets for industrialized and emerging economies by at least 5% below 1990 levels for the commitment period 2008 to 2012. While the European Union, Switzerland and most Central and East European States were requested to reduce emissions by 8%, Iceland, Greece and Portugal were permitted to increase carbon emissions by up to 10%, 25% and 27% respectively. This was to ensure that economic progress was not retarded in such European Countries.

These countries, however, are having relatively much higher per capita carbon emissions compared to Africa’s 1 metric ton of carbon per person. Thus, Iceland is having per capita carbon emissions of about 10 times higher, Greece of about 5 times higher and about 4 times higher in Portugal. More specifically, Nigeria’s carbon emissions in 2022 was just 0.067 metric tons compared to Iceland’s 9.55 metric tons per person during the same period.

Further, to ensure growth is not affected even in the advanced countries, the Protocol provides that countries can compensate for their emissions through Sink Enhancement; that is, by removing carbon from atmosphere either locally or outside their countries or through various Carbon Mitigation programmes. These are being achieved by financing emissions reduction projects such as afforestation (i.e. growing trees), deploying carbon capture and storage technologies and energy transition (i.e. switching to renewable energy) projects.

Furthermore, the World is about to enter a New Age of Electricity by 2030 as indicated by the World Energy Outlook Report (WEO; 2024). The report reveals that electricity use grew twice as fast as total energy demand from 2010 to 2023. But between now to 2035, electricity demand is set to grow six times as fast as overall energy demand as a result of factors like the adoption of electric vehicles, air conditioning use, the digitalization of the economy, and the expansion of artificial intelligence.

Barely two days after your media chat; that is, on November 8, 2024, the Lagos state government invites bidders to build four gas-fired power plants each with a capacity of at least 100MW to bridge the state’s persistent electricity gap. The state’s electricity demand is estimated at over 6GW but, the supply from national grid system is less than 2GW. However, the supply to Kano was estimated at 321GWh for the second quarter (NBS, 2024). It is worth noting that Lagos state is leveraging on the Escravos – Lagos Pipeline System (ELPS) that runs from Escravos in Niger Delta to the Itoki terminal in Lagos. The ELPS connects to the West African Gas Pipeline (WAGP) at the terminal.

In view of this, Kano state government is strongly urged to leverage the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (now AKK Gas Pipeline) to establish Gas-fired power plants with a view to providing affordable, reliable and secure electricity while promoting carbon neutrality.

This may encourage investment in low-carbon technologies that are best for fossil fuel-rich countries like Nigeria. It may mean investment in and adoption of low-carbon coal-fired power plants that will rely on coal gasification capable of generating substantial amounts of electricity at a much cheaper cost while minimising carbon emissions.

Sincerely Yours

Abdulrazaq Ibrahim (Fagge), Ph.D.

aibrahim@yumsuk.edu.ng