Powershift: The misalignment and misconception of the mathematics- Bala Ibrahim

Let me start by making it very clear that I am a celebrated failure in math, I belong to the group of those who scored F 10 in mathematics in the WAEC exams, so feel free to correct, or challenge the arithmetic of my submission. But that is not to say I am a bad student of history.

Since the infamous annulment of June 12, 1993, Presidential election, northern Nigeria and northern Nigerians have been held captive by the fears of misconception and political manipulations, that were engineered and used as instruments of blackmail against them, by those who actually benefited from the rescission.

Yes, in theory, power resided for long in northern Nigeria, but what type of power, for who, and by who?

Basically, there are only two ways of getting political power, either through the ballot or the bullet. The first requires numerical strength, while the second requires military courage, both of which are abundantly available in the north. The third and very important factor that comes is money, which is mostly none available in the north.

For a region that has been in partnership with poverty for long, which even with the coming of Dangote and BUA, is providing lodging for the 43 percent of Nigerians living below the poverty line, as well as offering accommodation to the bulk of the 25 percent that are vulnerable, it would be extremely impossible for such a people to design and execute a collective blueprint for the permanent subjugation of an entire country. Those who are accusing the north of cornering power, are only being clever by half.

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It’s either some people amongst the northerners, who are in the minority, are conniving with another prejudiced group from the outside, who are secretly funding the project of emasculating the country, or some people somewhere are playing mischief against the wishes and understanding of the entire country.

Before and immediately after the independence, which ushered a Republican government between 1963 and 1966, Nigeria and Nigerians were living in peace, until the first military coup took place.

History told us the 1966 coup was carried out by mostly Igbo army officers, including Major Nzeogwu Kaduna and Major Emmanuel Ifeajuna. The casualties of the coup were predominantly northerners, including the Prime Minister, Alhaji Abubakar Tafawa  Balewa and the Sardauna of Sokoto, Sir Ahmadu Bello.

Although the Premier of the Western Region, Sir Samuel Akintola was also killed, the killing of the finance minister, Festus Okotie Eboh, from the south-south, was more suspicious, because he was only holding a cabinet position and not a regional leader.

From July 6th 1967 to January 15th, 1970, Nigeria was in a civil war as a result of that assault on the north, which came to be referred to as the Biafran War.

The secessionists were crushed and Nigeria, under the leadership of a northerner, General Yakubu Gowon, refused to be arrogant or display an undue offensive attitude of superiority against the south, specifically the southeast.

Gowon declared the slogan, ‘No victor, no vanquished, even as Obafemi Awolowo declared that all Igbos, irrespective of their pre-civil war financial assets, were only entitled to an equivalent of £20 on their return.

For the sake of other considerations, the north played the role of the magnanimous big brother.

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Someone wrote and I quote, “By 2023 we would have had 24 years of uninterrupted civil rule from 1999 – 2023. Out of this, the South ruled for 14 years (Obasanjo 8, Jonathan 6) and the North 10 years (Umar Yar’adua 2, Buhari 8). So if justice, equity and fairness is the language, let’s start from ground zero again, 14:14 which implies the North should be given another 4 years to level up. This is more so that the North had concession two great sacrifices so far in the rotational Presidency arrangement. First was allowing it to start from the South in 1999 and second was sacrificing the turn of the North to Jonathan in 2011, argued on the so-called doctrine of necessity due to the demise of Umaru Yar’adua. Even with this, Jonathan almost overstretched this concession when he re-contested yet again in 2015”.

The north did all these for the sake of other considerations, by playing the role of the magnanimous big brother. Yet, some people still take it upon themselves to blackmail it, saying the north and northerners are power-hungry.

Whatever is pushing those blackmailing the north under this arrangement of sponsored misalignment, one thing would eventually become clear: it would be difficult to have monolithic south. Even if the southwest succeeds in bringing the entire southern region to the meetings when it comes to the time of picking the zone to take a shot at the Presidency, the South-East would not let it go to anyone, but it.

Already, after the Monday meeting and subsequent communique, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, the apex Igbo socio-cultural group, has issued a statement immediately, urging the Southern governors to be magnanimous in conceding the presidency to the South-East. “The South-West had a shot, the South-South had a shot, and in each occasion, the Igbo gave them total support. So justice, equity and fairness will demand that they concede the Presidency to the South-east- Ohanaeze Ndigbo.

So the long and short of the story is for the north to commence the process of reviving its old political alliance with the South-South. It should not lose any sleep over these threats.

They are empty and misconceived political threats, designed to misalign the regions, by misplaying the mathematics. And they cannot stand the test of democracy.

Ibrahim, a media advisor writes from Abuja